Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12259/145294
Type of publication: research article
Type of publication (PDB): Straipsnis Clarivate Analytics Web of Science / Article in Clarivate Analytics Web of Science (S1)
Field of Science: Fizika / Physics (N002);Aplinkos inžinerija / Environmental engineering (T004);Energetika ir termoinžinerija / Energetics and thermal engineering (T006)
Author(s): Jankevičienė, Justė;Kanapickas, Arvydas
Title: Projected near-surface wind speed trends in Lithuania
Is part of: Energies. Basel : MDPI AG, 2021, vol. 14, iss. 17
Extent: p. 1-13
Date: 2021
Keywords: Vėjo greitis;RCP scenarijai;Klimato kaita;TKKK prognozės;Wind speed;RCP scenarios;Climate change;IPCC projections
Abstract: Developing wind energy in Lithuania is one of the most important ways to achieve green energy goals. Observational data show that the decline in wind speeds in the region may pose challenges for wind energy development. This study analyzed the long-term variation of the observed 2006–2020 and projected 2006–2100 near-surface wind speed at the height of 10 m over Lithuanian territory using data of three models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). A slight decrease in wind speeds was found in the whole territory of Lithuania for the projected wind speed data of three global circulation models for the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. It was found that the most favorable scenario for wind energy production is RCP2.6, and the most unfavorable is the RCP4.5 scenario under which the decrease in wind speed may reach 12%. At the Baltic Sea coastal region, the decline was smaller than in the country’s inner regions by the end of the century. The highest reduction in speed is characteristic of the most severe RCP8.5 scenario. Although the analysis of wind speeds projected by global circulation models (GCM) confirms the downward trends in wind speeds found in the observational data, the projected changes in wind speeds are too small to significantly impact the development of wind farms in Lithuania
Internet: https://www.vdu.lt/cris/bitstream/20.500.12259/145294/1/ISSN1996-1073_2021_V_14_17.PG_1-13.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12259/145294
https://doi.org/10.3390/en14175425
Affiliation(s): Lietuvos energetikos institutas
Appears in Collections:1. Straipsniai / Articles
Universiteto mokslo publikacijos / University Research Publications

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