Simulating impacts of climate change on phenology of winter wheat in northern Lithuania

Abstract

Climate warming and a shift in the timing of phenological phases, which lead to changes in the duration of the vegetation period may have an essential impact on the productivity of winter crops. The main purpose of this study is to examine climate change related long term (19612015) changes in the duration of both initial (pre-winter) and main (post-winter) winter wheat vegetation seasons, and to present the projection of future phenological changes until the end of this century. Delay and shortening of pre-winter vegetation period, as well as the advancement and slight extension of the post-winter vegetation period resulted in the reduction of whole winter wheat vegetation period by more than one week over investigated 55 years. Projected changes in the timing of phenological phases which define limits of a main vegetation period differ essentially from observed period. According to pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenario, the advancement of winter wheat maturity phase by almost 30 days and the shortening of postwinter vegetation season by 15 days is foreseen for a far (2071-2100) projection. An increase in the available chilling amount is specific not only of investigated historical period (1960-2015) but also of projected according to both climate change scenarious climate warming for all three projection periods, including far projection (2071-2100). Consequently, the projected climate warming does not pose a threat of plant vernalization shortage in the investigated geographical latitudes.