Background, purpose. The current study examined the predictability of oral reading fluency on a state’s measure of adequate yearly progress in the area of reading comprehension in grades three, four and five. Material and methods. A hierarchical regression analysis was utilized in order to assess the relative impact of oral reading fluency, ethnicity, socioeconomic status and gender within the regression model. Data from 1044 students in 22 schools were collected and analyzed in an effort to answer the research questions posed. Results, conclusions. The results of the study corroborated earlier research indicating the robust nature of oral reading fluency in predicting reading comprehension on high stakes tests. As such, the results suggest oral reading fluency remains a powerful and parsimonious method to monitor individual student achievement within general or remedial reading programs and within Response to Intervention processes. The contribution of ethnicity within the hierarchical regression model was statistically significant across all grades, while socioeconomic status was significant in third and fifth grades. Socioeconomic status did not significantly contribute to the model in grade 4 after ethnicity was added to the analysis. The role of gender was minimal in grades three and five, while the impact was statistically significant in fourth grade (i.e., girls scoring significantly higher on the criterion or outcome measure). Finally, the results suggested separate regression models may be necessary to adequately describe the differences between the ethnic subgroups within this study.