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Type of publication: research article
Type of publication (PDB): Straipsnis Clarivate Analytics Web of Science / Article in Clarivate Analytics Web of Science (S1)
Field of Science: Aplinkos inžinerija / Environmental engineering (T004)
Author(s): Mozgeris, Gintautas;Kazanavičiūtė, Vaiva;Juknelienė, Daiva
Title: Does aiming for long-term non-decreasing flow of timber secure carbon accumulation: a Lithuanian forestry case
Is part of: Sustainability. Basel : MDPI AG, 2021, vol. 13, iss. 5
Extent: p. 1-24
Date: 2021
Keywords: Sustainable forest management;Evenness of timber flow;Carbon stock changes;Simulation;Climate change
Abstract: Lithuanian forestry has long been shaped by the classical normal forest theory, aiming for even long-term flow of timber, and the aspiration to preserve domestic forest resources, leading to very conservative forest management. With radically changing forest management conditions, climate change mitigation efforts suggest increasing timber demands in the future. The main research question asked in this study addresses whether current forest management principles in Lithuania can secure non-decreasing long-term flow of timber and carbon accumulation. The development of national forest resources and forestry was simulated for the next century using the Kupolis decision support system and assuming that current forest management is continued under the condition of three scenarios, differing by climate change mitigation efforts. Potential development trends of key forest attributes were analysed and compared with projected carbon stock changes over time, incorporating major forest carbon pools—biomass, harvested wood products and emission savings due to energy and product substitution. The key finding was that the total carbon balance should remain positive in Lithuania during the next one hundred years; however, it might start to decrease after several decades, with steadily increasing harvesting and a reduced increase of forest productivity. Additionally, incorporating the harvested wood and CO2 emissions savings in carbon balance evaluations is essential
Affiliation(s): Aplinkotyros katedra
Miškų ir ekologijos fakultetas
Vandens ūkio ir žemėtvarkos fakultetas
Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas
Appears in Collections:Universiteto mokslo publikacijos / University Research Publications

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