Assessing the influence of forest management on ecosystem services in the future

Abstract

The presentation would aim to introduce a methodological framework to assess current and alternative forest management models based on evaluating future trends of a basket of ecosystem services utilising forest scenario modelling. The corner stones of the approach discussed are (i) assessment of current state of forest ecosystem services provided by forest landscapes and modelling trends under conditions of various future scenarios, if current forest management practices are continued; (ii) suggesting alternative forest management models aimed to optimize the future development of ecosystem services and validating them using the same principles as with current forest management models; (iii) building the implementation str ategies and tactics for the achieved research results. Suggested framework is illustrated using results from H2020 project ALTERFOR. Twelve current forest management models were identified in the case study area corresponding to management area of Telšiai State forest enterprise in western part of Lithuania and the development of six groups of forest ecosystem services – timber supply, carbon sequestration, biodiversity and water related, cultural and regulatory – was modelled under conditions of three futu re scenarios, basically related to European and global efforts to mitigate the climate change. As current forest management approaches were assessed to result in increase of profits from forestry activities but decline of biodiversity related and cultural services in a long run, several alternative forest management models were proposed and evaluated[...]