Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12259/91998
Type of publication: Straipsnis Clarivate Analytics Web of Science ar/ir Scopus / Article in Clarivate Analytics Web of Science or / and Scopus (S1)
Field of Science: Aplinkos inžinerija / Environmental engineering (T004)
Author(s): Stonevičius, Edvinas;Rimkus, Egidijus;Kažys, Justas;Bukantis, Arūnas;Kriaučiūnienė, Jūratė;Akstinas, Vytautas;Jakimavičius, Darius;Povilaitis, Arvydas;Ložys, Linas;Kesminas, Vytautas;Virbickas, Tomas;Pliūraitė, Virginija
Title: Recent aridity trends and future projections in the Nemunas River basin
Is part of: Climate Research. Oldendorf : Inter-Research, 2018, Vol. 75, N 2
Extent: p. 143-154
Date: 2018
Note: eISSN 1616-1572
Keywords: Nemunas basin;Reference evapotranspiration;Precipitation;Aridity index;AI;EURO-CORDEX;Climate change
Abstract: Changes in the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) and precipitation (P) patterns in the Nemunas River basin (Baltic Sea catchment) are evident today and will be even more significant in the future. Nemunas basin aridity dynamics (1901−2010) and projections (2081−2100) were evaluated using the UNEP aridity index (AI). Historical analysis (CRU TS3.24.01) and future projections (EURO-CORDEX) of monthly air temperature and precipitation were used for the AI estimation. Projections of the meteorological parameters according to 4 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) were used in the analysis. In the Nemunas River basin, evapotranspiration exceeded precipitation from April to August, and in a large part of the basin the climatic conditions during this part of the year could be described as dry subhumid (AI < 0.65). Since the 1980s, increased aridity has been observed between April and August due to a strong positive trend of ET0 and a strong negative trend of P. Future projections (2081−2100) show that despite large uncertainties in the climate projections, it is more likely that the Nemunas basin climate will become more humid in April and May and drier between June and August. The increase in climate aridity during these months is more likely in the southern and central parts of the basin
Internet: https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v75/n2/p143-154
Affiliation(s): Gamtos tyrimų centras
Lietuvos energetikos institutas
Vilniaus universitetas
Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas
Žemės ūkio akademija
Appears in Collections:Universiteto mokslo publikacijos / University Research Publications

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