Climate change and water discharge in the Nemunas river basin

Abstract

Climate change have significant impacts on the hydrological cycle at the global and regional scale. The objective in this paper is to analyze of climate change on the hydrological cycle – river and drainage water discharge. The forecast of the changes to Nemunas River discharge for the period from 2021 to 2050 were based on A1 and B1 CCLM regional climate models, using model of hydrological-climatic calculations based on simultaneous solution of the water and heat energy balance equations. The A1 scenario corresponds to a story line of hight economic growth but with limited population growth, and the radip introduction of new and more efficient energy technologies. The B1 scenario corresponds to low growth coupled with the adoption of clean and resource efficient energy technologies. The discharges in the Nemunas River were made using data obtained from Kaunas (Lithuania) and Grodno (Belarus) meteorological and hydrological regime observation stations. The results show the transformation of the Nemunas River discharge hydrograph of the discharge: a slight increase in the spring floods in the Belorussian part and spring floods will begin earlier than at the present time; the duration of flooding will remain the same in Lithuania part.