Development of national LULUCF GHG projection system : the implications for forest and land use policy in Lithuania

Abstract

The role of land use change and forestry in the aim to improve the balance of carbon emissions in Lithuania is considered to be highly important. Current operational GHG accounting and reporting system for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry sector is focused mainly on monitoring, however, the importance of related political and management decisions are increasing. Such decisions are usually followed with risks and uncertainties concerning acceleration of anthropogenic climate change, complex dynamics of evolving rural and forest governance, developing ownership structures and land-use patterns. The presentation would introduce methodological framework for projecting national carbon balance trends. The role of modern decision supporting tools, incorporating scenario modeling and behavior of involved actors, facilitating the recommendations for new coherent policy instruments and management strategies, will be discussed. The system of forestry and land-use scenario development is a part of Lithuanian National Forest Inventory by sampling method. It is built on a basic matrix structure defining a number of fixed states and modeling the transitions of the states over time. The discussion is concentrated around the potential dynamics of forest reference level, forest and land-use policy implications and sustainable development challenges at national level under different future alternatives. The study will be elaborated in the frames of two EU Horizon 2020 projects DIABOLO and ALTERFOR as well as national project FORESTRESS.