Žemės ūkio rizikos ir jų integruoto vertinimo galimybės

Abstract

Straipsnyje analizuojamos žemes ūkio veiklą [takojančios rizikos rūšys ir jas sukeliantys veiksniai. Žemes ūkio rizikos yra tarpusavyje susijusius dėl jų veiksnių sąsajų, kas sudaro prielaidas kurti integruotą žemes ūkio rizikų vertinimo modelį. Straipsnyje pateikiama žernės ūkio integruoto žemes ūkio rizikų vertinimo schema ir rizikos vertinimo modelių analize

Article analysis kinds of risks that make impact to agricultural business and main factors causing them. There are five kinds of risks that affect agriculture business: credit, political, economic, human and production. Agricultural risks are inter-related each with other regarding the generality of there factors, for example, political and economical risks can be affected by government decisions or production risk and economical risk is depended on situation in market, level of demand and so on. For (his reason there is possibility to create integrated evaluation models of agricultural risk. This article presents scheme for integrated risk evaluation that consists of three levels: outside, inside and partners analysis. This scheme includes various risks assessment models as well. First level of the scheme "outside analysis" tries to evaluate economical, political and market risks and for that purpose these risk assessment models are used: scenario analysis, Delfi method. Fuzzy matrix, event tree analysis, statistical method. Second level is ..inside analysis", in this step it is important to investigate technical abilities of business or production risk, m this level these methods can be used statistical, Fuzzy matrix, what if method and others. Last step ,,partners analysis" evaluate credit risk and for that these models can be used: cost-benefit analysis, scenario or statistical methods. Integrated risk evaluation is very important Tor business. Integrated risk assessment helps to reduce settlement costs, taxes, improve decision-making efficiency, increase profitability. Risk assessment and it's proper interpretation helps to achieve desired results and minimize possibility of failure