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Type of publication: research article
Type of publication (PDB): Straipsnis Clarivate Analytics Web of Science / Article in Clarivate Analytics Web of Science (S1)
Field of Science: Energetika ir termoinžinerija / Energetics and thermal engineering (T006);Matematika / Mathematics (N001)
Author(s): Augutis, Juozas;Krikštolaitis, Ričardas;Martišauskas, Linas;Pečiulytė, Sigita;Žutautaitė, Inga
Title: Integrated energy security assessment
Is part of: Energy. Oxford : Pergamon-Elsevier, 2017, Vol. 138
Extent: p. 890-901
Date: 2017
Keywords: Energy security;Indicator;Dynamic model;Energy systems modelling;Bayesian method
Abstract: The aim of the study presented in this paper is a framework offering an integrated energy security assessment, based on different approaches. We consider a novel methodology as an integrated framework of different types of analyses and methods of energy security assessment towards the application for energy security level forecasting. A framework is needed for the integration of methods, capable of viewing the problem from different perspectives and suitable for coping with the high complexity of the issue to be solved. Key ideas and strengths of different methods were employed towards forecasting of energy security level in the future in order to evaluate the impact of new development projects in the energy system in terms of energy security assurance. Two different methods for the forecasting of energy security level considering various energy system development scenarios are proposed in this paper: the update of energy security level by using Bayesian method and the solution of a system of random differential equations. The implementation of the developed framework is demonstrated in a particular case study for Lithuania. The application of methodology for energy security level forecast highlights the impact of different energy development projects on energy security
Affiliation(s): Lietuvos energetikos institutas
Matematikos ir statistikos katedra
Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas
Appears in Collections:Universiteto mokslo publikacijos / University Research Publications

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