Euro įvedimo poveikio infliacijai vertinimas pasirinktose ES šalyse

Abstract

The euro is one of the most important instruments of payment, but the euro impact on inflation is an urgent scientific problem. P. Krugman (2012) said that euro adoption allows compare prices on the domestic market and euro area markets. This fact is determined in optimal currency area. Nevertheless researchers found that the introduction of euro caused the growth of prices in euro area countries. But these findings are not sufficiently established. Considering to these results, the purpose of this research is to evaluate the impact of the euro on country’s inflation. Methodology is based on time series models and regression analysis. In this investigation the period before euro adoption is two or three times longer than after this event because it allows to obtain more reliable results. The results showed that the introduction of the euro had an impact on inflation in Greece, France and Slovenia. Meanwhile, this effect was not statistically significant in Ireland, Belgium, Spain and Germany. Greek inflation rate before the introduction of the euro did not meet the Maastricht criteria, so it just led to changes in inflation. In France a major impact on price growth was the inability of society to adapt to the new currency (Mastrobuoni, 2004). Besides, in Slovenia inflation growth was able to create the economic crisis. So these findings could result the country’s internal and global economic situation.