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dc.contributor.authorKrikštolaitis, Ričardas-
dc.contributor.authorLutynska, Anna Ewa-
dc.contributor.authorPečiulytė, Sigita-
dc.contributor.authorŽutautaitė, Inga-
dc.descriptioneBook ISBN: 978-1-315-73697-6-
dc.description.abstractIn many areas models of different processes take into account various factors that are time-dependent and dependent on each other. Thus, it is advisable to construct a dynamic model in order to describe these dependences. In the dynamic model we use indicators. An indicator is a special index, which provides numerical values to important factors for the investigated sector. The values of indicators are obtained from statistical data. Also this dynamic model enables to forecast the dynamics of the indicators according to different new factors. Since the parameters of new factors are not exactly known (got from expert judgement), their influences on indicators are expressed as random variables with known probabilistic distributions. Indicators model based on historic data is adjusted by probabilistic model with the influence of new factors on indicators using a Bayesian methoden
dc.description.sponsorshipGamtos mokslų fakultetas-
dc.description.sponsorshipInformatikos fakultetas-
dc.description.sponsorshipMatematikos ir statistikos katedra-
dc.description.sponsorshipVytauto Didžiojo universitetas-
dc.format.extentp. 393-397-
dc.relation.ispartofSafety and reliability: methodology and applications : 24th European conference (ESREL 2014), 14-18 September 2014, Wroclaw, Poland : proceedings / editors Tomasz Nowakowski, Marek Młyńczak, Anna Jodejko-Pietruczuk, Sylwia Werbińska-Wojciechowska. London : CRC Press, 2014-
dc.relation.isreferencedbyConference Proceedings Citation Index-
dc.relation.isreferencedbyTaylor & Francis Online-
dc.subjectEnergetinis saugumaslt
dc.subjectDinaminis modelislt
dc.subjectEkspertinis vertinimaslt
dc.subjectEnergy securityen
dc.subjectDynamic modelen
dc.subjectExpert judgementen
dc.subject.otherEnergetika ir termoinžinerija / Energetics and thermal engineering (T006)-
dc.titleInvolvement of expert judgement in dynamic modelen
dc.typeStraipsnis konferencijos medžiagoje Clarivate Analytics Web of Science ar/ir Scopus / Article in Clarivate Analytics Web of Science or Scopus DB conference proceedings (P1a)-
local.object{"source": {"code": "vdu", "handle": "15940"}, "publisher": {"name": "CRC Press", "list": true}, "db": {"clarivate": false, "scopus": true, "list": true}, "isbn": ["9781138026810"], "doi": "10.1201/b17399-57", "code": "P1a", "subject": ["T006"], "url": [""], "country": "GB", "language": "en", "area": "T", "original": true, "pages": 5, "sheets": 0.357, "timestamp": "20200922144934.0", "account": {"year": 2014, "late": false}, "na": 4, "nip": 0, "affiliation": [{"contribution": 0.25, "aip": 1, "country": ["LT"], "rel": "aut", "org": [{"create": true, "contribution": 0.25, "name": "Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas", "id": "111950396", "level": "0", "type": "uni", "research": "1", "status": "1", "unit": {"name": "Informatikos fakultetas", "id": "04", "level": "1", "type": "fak", "research": "1", "status": "1", "unit": {"name": "Matematikos ir statistikos katedra", "id": "0402", "level": "2", "type": "kat", "research": "1", "status": "1"}}}], "id": "C63849AC658D3AE9CEBA7FE8414D3D5D", "lname": "Krikštolaitis", "fname": "Ričardas", "status": "1", "orcid": "0000-0001-9556-4121", "name": "Krikštolaitis, Ričardas"}, {"contribution": 0.25, "aip": 1, "country": ["LT"], "rel": "aut.", "org": [{"create": true, "contribution": 0.25, "name": "Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas", "id": "111950396", "level": "0", "type": "uni", "research": "1", "status": "0", "unit": {"name": "Gamtos mokslų fakultetas", "id": "01", "level": "1", "type": "fak", "research": "1", "status": "0"}}], "id": "481BDC2E11BF6427316B2EC84D0BE6B3", "lname": "Lutynska", "fname": "Anna Ewa", "status": "0", "name": "Lutynska, Anna Ewa"}, {"contribution": 0.25, "aip": 1, "country": ["LT"], "rel": "aut", "org": [{"create": true, "contribution": 0.25, "name": "Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas", "id": "111950396", "level": "0", "type": "uni", "research": "1", "status": "1", "unit": {"name": "Informatikos fakultetas", "id": "04", "level": "1", "type": "fak", "research": "1", "status": "1", "unit": {"name": "Matematikos ir statistikos katedra", "id": "0402", "level": "2", "type": "kat", "research": "1", "status": "1"}}}], "id": "48D38E67F7CE3944CFBE252A0DF9E9A2", "lname": "Urbonienė", "fname": "Sigita", "status": "1", "orcid": "0000-0003-1530-4069", "name": "Pečiulytė, Sigita"}, {"contribution": 0.25, "aip": 1, "country": ["LT"], "rel": "aut", "org": [{"create": true, "contribution": 0.25, "name": "Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas", "id": "111950396", "level": "0", "type": "uni", "research": "1", "status": "1", "unit": {"name": "Informatikos fakultetas", "id": "04", "level": "1", "type": "fak", "research": "1", "status": "1", "unit": {"name": "Matematikos ir statistikos katedra", "id": "0402", "level": "2", "type": "kat", "research": "1", "status": "1"}}}], "id": "8E89CB4FE8AAC3F840279381FB1E0FCA", "lname": "Šarūnienė", "fname": "Inga", "status": "1", "orcid": "0000-0002-6073-2823", "name": "Žutautaitė, Inga"}]}-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext- ir statistikos katedra- mokslų fakultetas- ir statistikos katedra- ir statistikos katedra-
Appears in Collections:Universiteto mokslo publikacijos / University Research Publications
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