Use this url to cite publication: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12259/40569
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Involvement of expert judgement in dynamic model
Type of publication
Straipsnis konferencijos medžiagoje Web of Science ir Scopus duomenų bazėje / Article in conference proceedings in Web of Science and Scopus database (P1a)
Author(s)
LT | ||
LT | ||
LT | ||
LT |
Title
Involvement of expert judgement in dynamic model
Is part of
Safety and reliability: methodology and applications : 24th European conference (ESREL 2014), 14-18 September 2014, Wroclaw, Poland : proceedings / editors Tomasz Nowakowski, Marek Młyńczak, Anna Jodejko-Pietruczuk, Sylwia Werbińska-Wojciechowska. London : CRC Press, 2014
Date Issued
Date Issued |
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2014 |
Publisher
London : CRC Press, 2014
Publisher (trusted)
Extent
p. 393-397
Field of Science
Abstract
In many areas models of different processes take into account various factors that are time-dependent and dependent on each other. Thus, it is advisable to construct a dynamic model in order to describe these dependences. In the dynamic model we use indicators. An indicator is a special index, which provides numerical values to important factors for the investigated sector. The values of indicators are obtained from statistical data. Also this dynamic model enables to forecast the dynamics of the indicators according to different new factors. Since the parameters of new factors are not exactly known (got from expert judgement), their influences on indicators are expressed as random variables with known probabilistic distributions. Indicators model based on historic data is adjusted by probabilistic model with the influence of new factors on indicators using a Bayesian method.
Type of document
type::text::journal::journal article::research article
Language
Anglų / English (en)
Coverage Spatial
Jungtinė Karalystė / United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (GB)
Description
eBook ISBN: 978-1-315-73697-6