Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12259/40569
Type of publication: Straipsnis konferencijos medžiagoje Clarivate Analytics Web of Science ar/ir Scopus / Article in Clarivate Analytics Web of Science or Scopus DB conference proceedings (P1a)
Field of Science: Energetika ir termoinžinerija / Energy and thermoengineering (T006)
Author(s): Krikštolaitis, Ričardas;Pečiulytė, Sigita;Žutautaitė, Inga
Contributor(s): Lutynska, Anna Ewa
Title: Involvement of expert judgement in dynamic model
Is part of: Safety and reliability: methodology and applications : 24th European conference (ESREL 2014), 14-18 September 2014, Wroclaw, Poland : proceedings / editors Tomasz Nowakowski, Marek Młyńczak, Anna Jodejko-Pietruczuk, Sylwia Werbińska-Wojciechowska. London : CRC Press, 2014
Extent: p. 393-397
Date: 2014
Note: eBook ISBN: 978-1-315-73697-6
Keywords: Energetinis saugumas;Dinaminis modelis;Ekspertinis vertinimas;Energy security;Dynamic model;Expert judgement
ISBN: 9781138026810
Abstract: In many areas models of different processes take into account various factors that are time-dependent and dependent on each other. Thus, it is advisable to construct a dynamic model in order to describe these dependences. In the dynamic model we use indicators. An indicator is a special index, which provides numerical values to important factors for the investigated sector. The values of indicators are obtained from statistical data. Also this dynamic model enables to forecast the dynamics of the indicators according to different new factors. Since the parameters of new factors are not exactly known (got from expert judgement), their influences on indicators are expressed as random variables with known probabilistic distributions. Indicators model based on historic data is adjusted by probabilistic model with the influence of new factors on indicators using a Bayesian method
Internet: http://www.crcnetbase.com/doi/abs/10.1201/b17399-57
http://www.crcnetbase.com/doi/abs/10.1201/b17399-57
Affiliation(s): Gamtos mokslų fakultetas
Informatikos fakultetas
Matematikos ir statistikos katedra
Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas
Appears in Collections:Universiteto mokslo publikacijos / University Research Publications

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