Mathematical simulation of energy supply disturbances

Abstract

Each country's security depends not only on technical, economical, political, environmental point of view, but also on energy production, infrastructure functioning, and safe public life. Security of energy supply is an extremely important field as well. Security of state's energy supply is particularly vulnerable in such European countries as Lithuania, which almost does not have their own energy resources (coal, oil, natural gas, uranium or vast hydro energy resources). Thus economy of such countries undergoes a strategic threat- dependence on countries-suppliers (often on one country supplier as well). Mathematical model of energy supply disturbances are analysed in the paper. Disturbances of energy supply are used to assess common scenario of energy supply. When there are scenarios of supply disturbances the consequences of these scenarios and their impact on the security of energy supply can be simulated.