Valiutų krizių poveikis ekonomikoms : Rusijos atvejis ir atgarsiai Lietuvoje

Abstract

Straipnyje analizuojama 1998 metų Rusijos valiutų krizė bei jos įtaka Lietuvos ekonomikai; vertinamas valiutų rinkos spaudimo indekso tinkamumas; šalies ekonomikos pažeidžiamumas, prognozuojant galimą valiutų krizę

There’s no universally accepted definition of a currency crisis, but most economists would agree that currency crisis can be defined as a speculative attack on a country’s currency that can result in a forced devaluation and possible debt default. The decade of the 1990s was certainly marked by a rather unusual number of currency crises such as the Mexican Peso Crisis of 1994-1995, the Asian Crisis of 1997, the Russian crisis of 1998 and its spillover to Latin America. These recent crises have naturally stimulated a deep interest in the study of relevant causes and consequences. This paper examines the reasons, consequences of the 1998 Russian currency crisis and analyses its consequences to Lithuania. The Russian crisis was also evidently connected with the earlier Asian crisis, and sent shock waves across global financial markets. Inadequate financial regulations and lack of information are some explanations for this contagion – effect. Still, a closer look shows that this crisis was mostly home made. So, main reasons of the Russian crisis were high budget deficit lasting many years, drop of export prices of energy raw materials, weak tax administration. Besides a whole range of factors of social nature accelerated the beginning of the crisis. By the end of September in 1998, the rouble had around 35% of its value before the crisis, monthly inflation was around 45% and the GDP was forecast to decrease 6% for the 1998. Therefore, the Russian currency crisis has dramatically set back a number of developments which were achieved by Russia following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Russian currency crisis effected Lithuania more than was expected. Growth forecasts have been revised downward for all of the Baltic countries. The hardest hit industries have been food and beverages and processing.[...]