Verslo ciklų sinchronizaciją sąlygojantys veiksniai

Abstract

Straipsnyje apibrėžiama verslo ciklų sinchronizacijos samprata. Remiantis teoriniais ir empiriniais tyrimais analizuojami bei kompleksiškai susiejami verslo ciklų sinchronizaciją sąlygojantys veiksniai. Išskiriamos dvi veiksnių grupės: verslo ciklų perdavimo veiksnių grupė arba verslo ciklų perdavimo kanalai ir veiksnių grupė apibūdinanti šalių makro aplinkos panašumus ir skirtumus

The research on business cycle synchronization started on the early nineties of XX century. This phenomenon is interdisciplinary economics and physics research object. The joint of these fields of science is called econophysics. In traditional view economics and physics are separate fields of science, but the research shows that they have much in common. The earliest econophysicists in this field R. M. Goodwin (1951), C. Hillinger ir T. Weser (1986), D. D. Selover ir R. V. Jensen (1999) tried to prove that synchronization processes visible in nature can be analysed also in economy and finance. They sought to equate business cycle synchronization to mode locking phenomenon discovered in mechanical systems. The main impulse to analyze business cycle synchronization between the economists was the investigation, according to optimum currency area theory (OCA) framework (Mundell, 1961; McKinnon, 1963; Kenen, 1969), whether or not certain countries would be good candidates for the currency union. The member of currency union apply the same monetary policy, but according to the OCA, if the countries experience asymmetric shocks, the same political instruments can’t be implemented, because won’t give expected result, the country will confront with risk to diverge from other countries. Still the research of business cycle synchronization research has broader sense. It is said that business cycles are caused by the international context that is synchronization with other countries. That’s why it is very important to take in consideration the possible consequences of synchronization with other countries while making some political decisions. The phenomenon of business cycle synchronizations and the determinants of it is still ambiguous. [...]