Kryptingo rinkos dezinformavimo identifikavimas Vokietijos pramonės sektoriaus pavyzdžiu

Abstract

Autorius kelia ir tikrina hipotezę, jog verslo organizacijos gali kryptingai skleisti klaidinančią (melagingą) ekonominę informaciją apie savo esamą ir ateities veiklą ir tai gali būti aptikta net makroekonominiame lygmenyje. Siekiant patikrinti šią hipotezę straipsnyje pateikiamas melagingo makroekonominio elgesio modelis ir jį leidžiantis identifikuoti metodas bei metodika. Iškelta hipotezė ir siūlomas metodas buvo patikrintas Vokietijos pramonės sektoriaus statistinių duomenų pagrindu

The analyzed problem is a part of problematic investigated in the macroeconomic behaviour theory, where the theories of the rational - irrational expectations as well as informational asymmetry play the essential role. In this paper, the author arise and examine a hypothesis, that business organizations are ready for a purposeful misrepresentation of the economic information (i. e., lying - a term used by the author) about the business situation. As stated in this paper, the lying could have a long term - systematic effect originated from the general principles of the competition in the market and business self - preservation and this lying might be revealed especially at the turning - points of economy. As stated in this paper, the lying could be detected even on macroeconomic level. Aiming to check this hypothesis, a model of a macroeconomic lying identification is proposed to evaluate the gap between the real behaviour of the producers at the developed countries (evaluation to be carried through the factual objective statistical data) and the economic changes expectations expressed by the producers (subjective information about expectations). Results of the research on the basis of Germany’s industrial sector data demonstrate that there is a strong probability to be a lying symptom in producer’s behavior especially in the moments of possible activity recession. However the proposed method must be improved and developed to adapt it for macroeconomic and financial market prognosis. A definitive confirmation of the raised hypothesis of the macroeconomic lying might allow a prognosis of the possible changes of the economic growth and to use results in financial market trade. In the case if the hypothesis of informational lying will not be confirmed, this investigational result could be used as some kind of validation for the qualitative research methods