Moscow’s aerospace theory of victory: western assumptions and Russian reality

Abstract

This CNA occasional paper explores the defense and offense elements of Russian aerospace operations, addressing three widespread Western assumptions about Russia’s approach and theory of victory. Russian air defense operations are a combination of offensive strike and defensive actions, instead of purely defensive as some in the West believe. The commonly used term “anti-access/area denial (A2AD)” is a misnomer in the context of Russian thinking on aerospace operations, and it conjures an inaccurate perception of Russian thinking on this subject. Furthermore, the popular Western belief that Russian operations are driven by a fait accompli strategy, has profound empirical problems. The operational concepts that would enable such a strategy cannot be supported by present-day available capabilities.