Spatial pattern of climate change effects on Lithuanian forestry

Abstract

The sensitivity of forests and forestry to climate change is widely reported. In Lithuania, the increase in air temperature, precipitation, nitrogen depositions during the vegetative period and reductions in SO2 concentrations and sulphur deposition during last 3-4 decades are associated with increased growth intensity of coniferous tree species and neutral reactions of deciduous. This presentation investigates how sensitive is the provision of ecosystem services to forest management, and to what extent may climate change influence the provision. We specified several alternative future scenarios with varying extent of efforts to mitigate the climate change, under differing assumptions for future forest yield, timber demand and price trends. Then we simulated forest resource development and forest use under conditions of alternative climate mitigation scenarios using decision support system and assuming that current forest management practices are continued. We analysed spatial and temporal patterns of ecosystem service provision at the level of regional branches of State forest enterprise. The main finding is that the increased efforts for climate change mitigation correlate positively with profits from forestry activities. Reduction of biodiversity values is lesser, despite increasing growth intensity. The study was conducted within the frames of H2020 project ALTERFOR and National research program FOREstRESS.