Probabilistic modeling of aircraft crash and impact on Ignalina NPP considering uncertainty

Abstract

The objective of considered work is to present the apptroach and analysis of the probabilistic modeling of the aircraft crash as well as results of the probabilistic modeling of aircraft crash impact on the main building of Ignalina nuclear power plant. In order to estimate the probability of this critical event occurrence near the Ignalina nuclear power plant in Lithuania, the model of aircraft crash frequency is developed and analyzed. The real statistical data are used. The impact of aircraft crash on the building of the plant is considered.The simulation and probabilistic estimation of this event occurrence, the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis and the investigated modeling approach as well as used software application possibilities are discussed. And finally, the probabilistic analysis of the most common aircraft used in Lithuania, i.e. two engine commercial airliner crash impact on the plants is considered.