Lietuvos retai apgyventos teritorijos : monografija

Abstract

14. More than 85% of the SPA territories belong to the less-favoured areas for farming, where traditional agricultural activities are problematic. Agricultural activities (including EU support) are a major source of income for less than half of farmers involved in farming on unproductive land and slightly more than half of farmers cultivating fertile land areas. A large part of meadows and pastures are not used, and are declared only for obtaining the EU support. It just simulates farming. In addition, the majority of farmers (60 %) are categorically against the change of the land use purpose, even though half of them are already over 60 years of age and there is no guarantee that someone will inherit their farm. It is unrealistic to expect that young workforce will appear in the SPAs, therefore tillage intensity on the territory of unproductive agricultural areas will further decline, and this will hamper the development of agriculture. Onlya few percent of currently employed persons in agriculture of the SPA neighbourhoods with the lowest land productivity may secure the minimal 1000 Lt income, and no more than 50% of subjects farming on more productive land. This suggests that rural social economic capacity is exceeded. It is usually considered that Lithuania is quite well mastered and relatively densely inhabited country. However, there are more and more territories or even entire regions in Lithuania with very low and rapidly decreasing population density. The accelerating depopulation and the spread of sparsely populated areas (further hereafter - the SPA) are becoming a new and a serious challenge for the Lithuanian society and the state. The problem is highly relevant, because a SPA is sort of an indicator that shows what the country may expect in the future. Uneven socio-economic development, high emigration, and other socio-demographic degradation phenomena threaten the Lithuanian state. The aim of the study is to reveal demographic and social characteristics related with the spread of sparsely populated areas in Lithuania and their population, as well as the development trends thereof. Attempts were made to highlight not only where and how many SPAs there are in Lithuania, but also their differences from other Lithuanian territories. But it should be noted that this book does not attempt to summarize all the topics close to this issue, or research papers conducted and published earlier by scientists of other countries or Lithuania (specific research about SPAs in Lithuania were simply not available), and we focused on the analysis of the recent statistical data received and collected by ourselves. We have made a complex analysis of the Lithuanian SPAs trying to assess whether the reduction of population density affects rural economy, what characteristic features are specific in economic activities, land use and agriculture, recreation and tourism, what are the peculiarities of particular network of settlements, what are the differences between the inhabitants, their main demographic trends and migration characteristics, and what problems arise while living in such areas. It's like trying to answer the question of whether the low population density is a consequence or a cause of processes, and can it have an impact on demographic, social, economic and other SPA indicators. In 2012-2013 the Institute of Human Geography and Demography at the Lithuanian Social Research Centre conducted the research project "Sparsely populated areas in Lithuania and their residents" under the national research programme "Social Challenges for National Security': The study presents part of the material collected and summarized during the research. The object of the research was SPAs in Lithuania, Le. such territorial units (neighbourhoods, municipalities), where rural population density does not exceed 12.5 inh/km2. The main period of the analysis covered the decade between the Lithuanian population census of 2001 and 2011, but in some cases data of previous research or statistical data were used and compared. The key outcomes and conclusions of the study are: 1. A large part of Lithuania is sparsely populated - it takes approximately 45% of the territory. Major part of such areas is concentrated in the North East and the South Lithuania where poor soils unfavourable for agriculture dominates. In those forested regions SPAs make large compact areas. Howe- 133 ver, foci of SPAs are starting to develop also in other regions of the country, e.g. in the Samogithia (in the counties of Šiauliai, Tauragė, Telšiai). Particularly sparsely populated areas in Lithuania are currently considered 183 neighbourhoods, or 29,3 thousand square km of the Lithuanian territory. SPAs are rapidly developing and are going to develop further in the nearest future. minates. In those forested regions SPAs make large compact areas. However, foci of SPAs are starting to develop also in other regions of the country, e.g. in the Samogithia (in the counties of Šiauliai, Tauragė, Telšiai). Particularly sparsely populated areas in Lithuania are currently considered 183 neighbourhoods, or 29,3 thousand square km of the Lithuanian territory. SPAs are rapidly developing and are going to develop further in the nearest future. 2. Deep demographic crisis is leading to the major consequence of intensive depopulation and particularly poor and worsening key demographic indicators, that differ from the national average by a few times: Particularly low birth rate (3.3 %0, while the national average is 10.1 %0); High mortality rate (19,1 %0, while the national average is 13,6 %0); Particularly negative natural change (-15,8 %0, while the national average is -3,5 %0); Unfavourable population reproduction age structure (children under 15 make 12.8% of the inhabitants, while the national average is 14.8%; residents over 65 make 21.7%, while the national average is 18.1 %), and the population aging; Emigration - the majority of the younger generation move out to large cities of Lithuania or abroad; The number and the density of population are rapidly decreasing (by 2.2% per year). So far there are no existing demographic preconditions for the improvement of the situation or the change of tendencies. We have to accept the fact that depopulation will continue, and the rural areas will be depopulating in the nearest 15-20 years leading to the increased numbers of SPAs. The process is natural and inevitable. It is a paradox, but it is so because even in the SPAs live more inhabitants than the socio-economic capacity of those areas permits. 4. Demographic situation in the East and South Lithuania may be qualified as stabile poor one, because it is similar for a few decades already. However situation in the West Lithuania could be assessed as a rapidly worsening one. Differences of the key demographic indicators between the neighbourhoods in SPAs are also rather significant. In 2011 there were 43 neighbourhoods, where no child birth was registered, yet in another 18 neighbourhoods birth rate was below one per mille meaning that only 1-2 children per year were born in the neighbourhood. Mortality rate in some neighbourhoods was very high, reaching 3-4% per year, while some neighbourhoods are losing almost 3.5% of the population per year due to the natural change. Consequently, a larger proportion of depopulation, or nearly %, falls under the negative natural change, and the smaller - to emigration. This is the main difference of SPAs from the general trends of the country. 4. The next sore point of SPAs with regards to demographic and social issues after the depopulation most probably is the aging population. Though the share of senior residents in SPAs has decreased within the decade (in 2012 it made 21.7% of the population, in 2001 - 28.7%), however, the reduced share of children and the increased share of residents in the working age indicate that quite a large part of residents in SPAs are approaching the retirement age. In some neighbourhoods of East Lithuania and in sparsely populated neighbourhoods the share of children reduced by two times or more within the decade and makes just up to 8% of the population. There are yet such neighbourhoods, where a share of children is still relatively large, i.e. 17-19%. Senior residents make about one third or more of the population in more than ten neighbourhoods. 5. A tendency was noted that the lower the population density, the poorer demographic indicators (higher mortality rate, poorer natural change, smaller share of children, larger share of the aging population). Therefore, it is assumed that the threshold of 10 residents / 1 km2 may be considered important - as having crossed it depopulation processes become critical and irreversible. Depopulation in Lithuania is followed by the decline in the network of educational and other social institutions. The closed loop is developing: population reduction leads to the decline of social infrastructure and this results to shrinkage of population and ect. It increases social and territorial exclusion of the population. This tendency is particularly sharp since 2005. 7. Poor social situation of the population in SPAs - high unemployment and inactivity of the population, many disadvantaged families, increasing dependence on social benefits and public support. SPAs are unattractive to new and young residents, social and economic problems are more severe than in other parts of the country. But on the other hand, SPAs often lie in the protected areas of Lithuania or adjacent to them, and are distinguished for woodlands and lakes, beautifullandscapes, historical values, quiet, clean, nice and well kept environment. Here one can find particularly good conditions to live and rest, for developing recreation and tourism business. Probably that's why almost all residents like living in their own region (96 %), and the number of willing to emigrate is relatively low (15%). 8. Since the restoration of independence Lithuania inherited the network of rural settlements adapted to the Soviet economy, which is constantly changing: depopulation continues in all categories of settlements. The land reform carried out after the restoration of independence is poorly related with the changes in the settlement system of rural areas. In this context, SPAs are distinguished as areas which in general experienced the lowest adverse developments in Lithuania. The lowest adverse developments in 2001-2011 experienced middle-sized settlements with 201-500 inhabitants, and the most stable were smaller settlements with 50-199 residents. Concentratio nof population in one or two largest settlements of the neighbourhood, where the 135 process of decline is slower, continues. Small villages will probably completely fade away and larger ones will turn into summer resorts. Larger settlements situated in a better geographicallocation - close to larger cities, more important and better roads, more beautiful environment - will persist. Differences of the settlement network on the regional and locallevel in SPAs have been historically developed. The consistent pattern of population distribution in the smallest and largest rural settlements may be distinguished in SPAs. As a rule there are more settlements in SPA neighbourhoods and they are smaller than in general in Lithuania: in the ave rage there were 54 rural settlements in one SPA neighbourhood in 2011, and 41 populated settlements (the average of Lithuania - 45 and 36 respectively). There are neighbourhoods with only a few settlements, while the largest neighbourhoods have more than 100 settlements. Approximately one half of all SPA settlements are small settlements (in other rural territories of Lithuania such settlements make some 32%). Also, more than half of Lithuanian settlements without residents are concentrated in SPAs. 10. At the end of the 20th century the changing character of social economic relations between cities and the surrounding regions leads to the development of cities as focal points and welfare sources for the surrounding problem regions. It might be stated in the case of Lithuania, that first of all such impact is made by the city of Vilnius, also Kaunas and Klaipeda. Elsewhere depopulation will continue until the territories reached the optimal population capacity under the existing social economic conditions. Considering that most social economic phenomena are noted of inertia, it might be expected that the accelerated depopulation process will reduce the number of inhabitants even more than provided by the social and economic capacity threshold. In the case of favourable tendencies of economic development in Europe, income of urban population should continue increasing, subsequently, the impact of the three largest cities of Lithuania on rural areas should be also increasing. This might lead to the reduction of negative social, economic and psychological depopulation consequences. 11. Unfavourable natural geographical conditions for farming, weak social-economic development, dwindling network of social institutions and the related with such factors social degradation and intensive depopulation make a serious obstacle to further economic and social development ofSPAs. Consolidation of cultivated land in Eastern Lithuania is slow, dominated by smaller, less competitive farms, where agricultural activities are less effective. There are many abandoned buildings in the regions as well as unutilised agriculturalland, the area of which is decreasing. Land productivity inf1uences population density and socio-economie development of the territory - on the one hand, less people live in the areas of unproductive land, because it is difficult for them to make a living there, on the other hand, in the areas of productive land farms are large and population density may be low because large farms are less labour intensive. 12. The relationship between the forest cover and the population density of SPAs is strong. According to our calculations about 52% of the Lithuanian forests are concentrated in SPA neighbourhoods, totalling approximatelyto 1 230 thousand ha, and the average wood density of a SPA neighbourhood is - 38.5%. Forestry in the wooded SPA areas has always been and still remains one of the most important economic activities. Multipurpose use ofSPA forests is especially important - picking up of forest products, increasing recreational and conservation values of forest services. 13. As much as 60% of the Lithuanian rura I tourism business is concentrated in SPAs. In some regions of the Highlands and Dzūkija recreational use of the area in the SPA neighbourhoods is the most important activity or one of the key functions. This shows the potential of such areas and the promising trends of activities. However, recreational function is so far concentrated in a relatively small part of SPAs (about 13%). Due to the intensive use of the area for recreational purposes, the number of people in some neighbourhoods in summer (especially on weekends) redoubles, and the neighbourhood area due to the increased number of people becomes no longer as sparsely populated area. Due to the increased number of holidaymakers (temporary residents) the turnover of shops, cafes and other services increases. The use of the territories of such neighbourhoods in the period of season and out of season is different in the main: as economically as socially, as in terms of the number of people, their activities, etc. We may anticipate that such differences will increase in the future. Some neighbourhoods may turn into purely recreational areas where most homesteads will remain uninhabited in the off-season period (only residents attending the area will stay). Such perspective is possible exceptionally for purely "mono-functional" areas, oriented to recreational use of the territory.