Kainų kintamumo veiksniai pasaulinėje grūdų rinkoje

Abstract

Prices of grain and "volatility" have been in the spotlight since grain prices reached their peaks in late 2007 and early 2008. Over time volatility refers to variations in economic variables. Variations in prices become problematic when they are large and cannot be anticipated. As a result it creates a level of uncertainty which increases risks for producers, traders, consumers and governments. Volatility of grain prices also affects food security in poor nations where households spend a substantial portion of their income on food. As a result, identifying the main determinants of price volatility becomes the key issue to minimize the negative effects in the whole agri-food chain. The analyzed literature indicated determinants of the grain price volatility, which can be classified into two main groups that are supply and demand. Supply determinants are mostly affected by diversion of food crops into production of biofuels, extreme weather conditions and trade restrictions. Demand determinants are mostly affected by rapid economic growth, demand growth, population growth and dietary changes. Other aspects that also affect volatility of grain prices are depreciation of the US dollar, high oil prices and speculative influences. To conclude, the most important of the determinants are the real economic activity, biofuel production, oil prices and financial market indicators.