Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12259/87842
Type of publication: Straipsnis konferencijos medžiagoje Clarivate Analytics Web of Science ar/ir Scopus / Article in Clarivate Analytics Web of Science or Scopus DB conference proceedings (P1a)
Field of Science: Miškotyra / Forestry (A004)
Author(s): Varnagirytė-Kabašinskienė, Iveta;Kabašinskas, Audrius
Title: Changes of dominant tree species areas over the past century in Lithuania: a mathematical approach
Is part of: Research for rural development 2014 : annual 20th international scientific conference proceedings, May 21-23, 2014. Jelgava : Latvia University of Agriculture, 2014, vol. 2
Extent: p. 35-41
Date: 2014
Keywords: Tree species;Areas;Statistical analysis
Abstract: The changes of areas of eight tree species in Lithuania during the past century were analysed. Aiming to apply the different approaches in forest studies, the Exponential smoothing method for forecasting the changes of the tree areas for the 25 years was used. The data dating from 1922 was analyzed as a time series. The descending trend was identified for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and European ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) and increasing trend – for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.), common oak (Quercus robur L.), birch species (Betula pubescens Ehrh. and Betula pendula Roth), black alder (Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn.), European aspen (Populus tremula L.) and grey alder (Alnus incana (L.) Moench). The Exponential Trend with Multiplicative Seasonality (ET-MS) model was fitted for almost all investigated tree species with exception of European ash. For the latter species, the Damped Trend with Multiplicative Seasonality (DT-MS) model was chosen. Mean absolute percentage error of the model in all cases did not exceed 2%
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Affiliation(s): Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas
Žemės ūkio akademija
Appears in Collections:Universiteto mokslo publikacijos / University Research Publications

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